BJP survey gives it slight edge in race against Cong

A shrinking UPA offers opportunities to BJP, but the saffron party has considerable ground to cover before it can seize a clear lead in the 2009 elections lending an even sharper edge to electoral battles in states where it directly squares off against the Congress.

Results of surveys commissioned by BJP show Congress, despite loss of allies and Thursday’s setback in Tamil Nadu where it has eight sitting MPs, is still projected to get 135-odd seats on its own, not too far off from the 145 it won in 2004. The party —seen to be better placed than BJP to win post-poll allies — seems to be riding on strong projections in Andhra Pradesh where it is well placed on 25 seats.

The projected separation between BJP at 160 seats and Congress is quite narrow and the higher number for the saffron party is in part based on a favourable projection in UP. “The story we see is that both the national parties are very much in the fray in 300-odd seats. How they hold their own could decide the match,” said G V L Narasimha Rao, who has conducted the surveys for BJP.

The results of the number crunching were presented to BJP prime ministerial nominee L K Advani a couple of days ago with the campaign team emphasising the need to decisively rout Congress in direct battles. Congress was likely to do reasonably well in Haryana and could improve in Punjab and Rajasthan and BJP needs to contain losses here while pressing hard in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Assam.

Of the projections, the UP figures can be disputed by independent observers. Rao sees a 20-plus tally but if this variable goes awry, it will sharply pull down BJP’s numbers. He argues that Congress’s appeal has grown but the party may not win seats. An SP-Congress alliance could have hoped to attract Muslim votes which are now likely to split between Mulayam Singh and Mayawati.

Similarly, an absence of an RJD-LJP-Congress alliance could help BJP in Bihar. Surveys showed a Muslim preference for Congress which might now get scattered. There are gains for Congress in Orissa but BJP feels that it is not out of the picture.

The larger message for BJP is that unless it can effectively bat Congress out of the game, the post-poll scenario remains highly unpredictable as the saffronites have no allies in south India. The party faces an uphill task of emerging on top by a decisive margin and then attracting allies like AIADMK or TDP and other smaller parties.

The overall tally for NDA, even by its surveys is around 217, more than 50 adrift of a majority. Figures for UPA, which Congress is bound to dispute, are lower at 180. The “threat” of a third front is very much real unless one of the big two puts on a big total. Then even regional parties would be more prepared for a stable five years in power than a government that lives hand to mouth.